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This is one reason why the LBCC bond passed. The college needs to be ready for this mini-boom to move through their facilities.
My research revealed the following: The U.S. birthrate has actually been increasing steadily since 1997 (Source: National Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 56, Number 7). Furthermore, during 2002 and 2003 (children born during these years would now be entering kindergarten and/or 1st grade), California, Los Angeles County and Long Beach births all reflected an increase over the years immediately prior (Source: California Vital Statistics Reports - 2002 and 2003). Thus the number of 5 and 6yr old children entering or returning to our area public schools this year should likewise be increasing, but it is not.
As previously mentioned, the overall area population is increasing. The birth rates for the area increased during the years those children would normally now be entering our elementary schools. Therefore neither population nor birth rate changes can fully account for the current decrease in “lower grade” public school enrollment drops.
I continue to feel strongly that many parents are simply becoming fed up with the overall mediocrity of the education product currently offered by our public schools and are, gradually, choosing other, generally superior, education options for their children.
Neither should this phenomenon be particularly unexpected. This, in fact, represents a couple of truths of the marketplace: those of choice and value. Given the freedom to choose, people will usually elect to invest their money where they will receive the best value for it; whether that be at the grocery store, the gas pump or (in this case) in the arena of primary education.
What I do find unexpected, however, is that more and more parents seem willing to invest additional money in private school enrollments and fees when educational voucher initiatives tragically fail over and over and over again. These parents continue to pay the taxes that help support, in many cases, failing public schools and then pay still more for private school enrollments for their children.
Another critical aspect of the marketplace, however…that of competition…is clearly not being demonstrated in this arena. This is most unfortunate because if true competition existed in the primary education arena, parents would be permitted to spend *all* of their education dollars where they chose and, as already demonstrated, most parents, given that choice, would choose to spend their money wherever they felt they could get the best education for their children. Thus schools that delivered better educations would attract more students and thrive and those that did not, would eventually lose so many students that they could no longer afford to operate (because federal and state subsidies are tied {unwisely} to attendance) and would eventually close.
In this very simple way our current quality-in-education challenge would ultimately solve itself.
As it stands now, however, the government, through taxation, confiscates parents’ education dollars and in some cases (as demonstrated) provides, at best, a mediocre education product in return. Because of this tragic circumstance, failing schools continue to fail because there is little, if any, true consequence for their failures. Well, no consequence to the failing schools themselves or to the Districts that support them, of course. Perish the thought!
The consequence to our comparatively under-educated students and, thus, eventually, to our society as a whole, however, remains inestimable.
It's my pleasure to respond to your article. I have read many of your comments and consider you to be well-informed and a good thinker, even though at times I have disagreed with your sentiments.
I know that overall, nationwide the population is increasing, however the most current data available (the 2000 census) demonstrates my point.
for reference, please review http://www.hellolongbeach.com/Census.Cfm
An excerpt from their data shows the following:
Under 5 years 38,587 8.4% of population
5 to 9 years 41,349 9.0%
10 to 14 years 35,641 7.7%
15 to 19 years 33,542 7.3%
As you can see, there was a "baby boom" in the early/mid-nineties of people in the Long Beach population, with the largest group of children in Long Beach falling in the 5-9 age group in 2000. The under five group is nearly 3,000 less potential students. It will be interesting to see in 2010 how this pans out, perhaps you are correct and the number does raise dramatically. There was an article about this very topic recently-- I am looking for it for you.
The schools do need to contract the facilities accordingly.
I personally have two children in LB schools and am very happy with their schooling--but you should know that I have figured out that the best way to get good service for my children in LBUSD is to transfer them to a school of my choosing. It is a simple matter to do the paperwork. Both of my kids score high and go to the highest scoring schools--Parents need to use the system this way. It sends a loud and clear message to the district as to which schools are doing a poor job and should be downsized.
Still, I agree with you on many points. I know quite a few people who use private schools over public. There can be no doubt that affects student enrollment.
Also, it is terribly frustrating to have to do fund raising to pay for basic programs that the district should pay for. It does seem at times the district's priorities are messed up.
I'd rather see my kids get the best teachers in a temporary classroom (heck one local private school is just this!) than spend a bunch of money on fancy buildings with mediocre teachers, or on new corporate digs for admin.
In fact I've noticed that several private schools seriously lack decent facilities, and yet in many cases, their students manage to score higher on tests. What is up with that?
As demonstrated, there are several LBUSD Title 1 Schools that have been failing now for 6 consecutive years, yet when it comes time to close a school, they select one that was not failing (Tucker) and permit those that are failing to continue to do so.
In any failed organization, I look first to the leadership. Thus I lay the primary responsibility for this current public school mess squarely at the feet of our school board. It is they that permit individual failing schools to exist within their jurisdiction. Our School Board should be correcting these failures because it is their job to do so, not because the State or the Fed steps in and tries to make them.
But then again, this is also not surprising, on a School Board where someone like Michael Shane Ellis is permitted to remain a member and THAT is no one's fault but our own, for failing to remove him when we could have.